The
Rooster and the Sunrise
The
invalid assumption that correlation implies cause is probably among the two or
three most serious and common errors of human reasoning.
Stephen
Jay Gould, American biologist and author, 1981
During the Covid19 pandemic all sorts of misinformation and disinformation have been created and shared. How and why has this happened? A news account of remarks made at an anti-vax, anti-mask rally near the Minnesota State Capitol on August 28th offers an answer to that question.
….Sen.
Jim Abeler, R-Anoka, who had been a supporter of [Jan Malcom] the [Minnesota
commissioner of health], told the crowd that firing Malcolm is now an
option. “I’m not defending her anymore,”
Abeler said. “It seems the only language the governor understands is the
removal of another commissioner.”
Abeler,
who chairs a key senate human services reform committee, describes Malcolm as a
friend and said it saddens him to call for her ouster. But Abeler wants
Minnesotans to decide for themselves whether to get the COVID-19 vaccine. He
said he opposes mandates or any heavy-handed efforts to get people to comply
and that he believes Malcolm and the administration have failed to tell people
the whole story.
“They
had been behind encouraging, cajoling these employer mandates, the college
mandates strongly, saying that the vaccines are safe and effective,” Abeler
said in an interview. “But there are huge safety issues, which no one is
talking about, and people should have the right to know that. That’s my simple
request.” Abeler claimed during his
speech that more than 200 Minnesotans have died from the vaccine, but that
number is hard to confirm.
Abeler
got the number from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Vaccine
Adverse Event Reporting System, or VAERS, a database of "information on
unverified reports of adverse events (illnesses, health problems and/or
symptoms) following immunization with U.S.-licensed vaccines." The system
is designed to detect problems with vaccines, but it clearly states that just
because a death or other health problem is listed, it cannot necessarily be
attributed to the vaccine.
In
some of the Minnesota cases, the deaths reported were likely from other causes
but just happened to have occurred within 60 days of the person being
vaccinated. Meanwhile, the Health
Department reports more than 7,800 Minnesotans have died because of COVID-19.[1]
How does
this vignette help explain the origin of misinformation? First, note how Sen. Abeler “frames up” the
issue by raising suspicion in his hearers. He accuses Commissioner Malcom and Governor
Walz of having failed to tell people the whole story of the pandemic. He goes on to declare: “But there are huge safety issues, which no
one is talking about, and people should have the right to know that. That’s my simple request.” Abeler
implies that “somebody” or a nefarious group of individuals is covering
up allegedly disastrous results produced by the Covid19 vaccinations. Second, Abeler marshals what he considers to
be alarming evidence to back up his claims:
“…more than 200 Minnesotans have died from the vaccine.”
Four days
after Sen. Abeler made these comments, Minnesota Public Radio carried the
following comments from one of the nation’s foremost epidemiologists, Dr.
Michael Osterholm of the University of Minnesota. Osterholm was unequivocal in refuting
Abeler’s claims:
“The
senator’s wrong, and he knows it. It’s just not true,” Osterholm said. According to Osterholm, Abeler’s claim is an
“abuse” of data from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS), a
national effort to detect potential safety problems in vaccines. Any adverse health outcome following
vaccination, even if ultimately unrelated, can be reported to VAERS for further
investigation. Osterholm said Abeler was mischaracterizing deaths in the system
unrelated to vaccines.
“I
can say safely at this point in Minnesota, no one has died from receiving the
COVID vaccine. No one,” Osterholm said. “These vaccines are safer than aspirin.”[2]
This
situation illustrates well how misinformation about the pandemic is created and
spread. In the context of divided
government in Minnesota (the Democrats control the House of Representatives and
the Governor’s office, while the Republicans narrowly control the Senate) and,
in anticipation of the 2022 elections in which Republicans intend to capture
both chambers of the Legislature along with the Governor’s office, the pandemic
has emerged as one of the most fought-over “political footballs” in Minnesota.
Senator
Abeler and his Republican colleagues in the state Senate have done their best
to “weaponize” the pandemic and the numerous measures the Walz administration
has taken to keep Minnesotans safe and healthy during a pandemic, the likes of
which have not been seen for more than a century. In this regard, Walz has gone “by the book”
in terms of following CDC and other Federal public health guidelines—and he’s
been willing to endure the slings and arrows of his GOP critics. As we approach the 2022 election cycle, Republicans
appear to be highly focused on attacking Walz’s alleged heavy-handedness in
keeping Covid19 under control.
Another
reality that both Democrats and Republicans in Minnesota have to deal with is
that the pandemic is still causing sickness and taking lives—despite the high
(but not high enough!) rate of Covid vaccinations that Minnesota residents have received. Frustrated by Walz’s relative popularity and
effectiveness, GOP leaders are tempted to go “out of bounds” as Senator Abeler
did last Saturday.
In this
regard, we dare not miss the logical fallacy woven into Abeler’s contention
that the Covid19 vaccine has killed 200 of the over 3 million Minnesotans who
have been vaccinated. Abeler seems to
have ignored the fact that VAERS data indicates a correlation with, but
not necessarily the causation of, those 200 deaths.[3]
From
ancient times this has been described in the Latin phrase: Post hoc ergo propter hoc (translated: “after this, therefore because
of this.”) This fallacy is often illustrated by the old parable of the rooster
and the sunrise: the rooster
crows and the sun rises—so the rooster must have caused the sun to rise,
right? Wrong!
At its
root, our country’s difficulty with misinformation and disinformation about the
pandemic reflects a mindset that has infected too many of our fellow
citizens: a deep-seated skepticism
about public health experts and their expertise. What if, on the other hand, we all developed
the more healthy habit of becoming more skeptical of the skeptics?
Sadly,
this saga demonstrates how easy it is for false information to be shared in
such a way that it develops a life of its own.
Senator Abeler planted a seed of misinformation (“Covid vaccinations
killed 200 Minnesotans”) which will likely “grow” every time it is repeated
(and sensationalized?) by those who heard him at that State Capitol rally on
August 28.
[1] Minnesota Public Radio: “Malcolm
next? GOP senators threaten another commissioner’s job,” by Tim Pugmire and Tim
Nelson, on August 30, 2021 3:29 p.m.
[2]
Minnesota Public Radio: “Osterholm on the fourth COVID-19 wave,
schools reopening and vaccine safety,” by Cathy Wurzer, Lindsay Guentzel and
Alex Cheng on September 1, 2021 6:04 p.m.
[3]
As Sen. Abeler failed to mention,
the VAERS website makes it clear that: “While very
important in monitoring vaccine safety, VAERS reports alone cannot be used to
determine if a vaccine caused or contributed to an adverse event or illness.
The reports may contain information that is incomplete, inaccurate,
coincidental, or unverifiable. Most reports to VAERS are voluntary, which means
they are subject to biases.”
